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Playoff picture still pretty fuzzy

11/02/2013, 8:02pm PDT
By John Maffei, Craig Malveaux

First season of new format creating buzz . . . and uncertainty.


Quarterback Connor Wynn has Mission Hills set up for the No. 1 seed in the Open Division.

The San Diego Section football playoff seeding meeting is Saturday morning, and the new Open Division has created a buzz. But Divisions IV and V also have people talking.

Heading into the final week of the regular season, here are predictions of how the seedings will go:

Open Division

(8 of 8 make it)

1) Mission Hills, 8-1

2) Oceanside, 7-2

3) Eastlake, 8-1

4) Helix, 7-2

5) La Costa Canyon, 6-3

6) Torrey Pines, 6-3

7) Poway, 3-6

8) Steele Canyon, 3-6

Comments: The difference among the top-four seeds is razor thin. Oceanside is playing sensational football, but a 30-6 loss to Mission Hills means the Grizzlies get the top seed. Poway and Steele Canyon don’t deserve to be in this division.

Division I

(12 of 16 make it)

IN (10)

1) San Pasqual, 8-1

2) Ramona, 8-1

3) Cathedral Catholic, 7-2

4-5) Grossmont, 7-2

4-5) Carlsbad, 7-2

6) Olympian, 6-3

7) Mt. Carmel, 6-3

8) Point Loma. 5-4

9) El Camino, 4-5

10) Mira Mesa, 4-5

ON THE BUBBLE (4 for 2 spots)

Chula Vista, 3-6

Otay Ranch, 3-6

Westview, 3-6

Vista, 2-7

OUT (2)

Lincoln, 1-8

Valhalla, 1-8

Comments: The top three teams all can make an argument for the No. 1 seed, but San Pasqual has wins over Mission Hills, Torrey Pines and La Costa Canyon. Ramona has wins over Grossmont, Helix and Torrey Pines. Cathedral has losses to Helix and St. Augustine. Grossmont and Carlsbad are dead even. Grossmont finishes with a game at West Hills. Carlsbad hosts Vista. All the bubble teams have tough games Friday — Chula Vista plays Rancho Santa Margarita Tesoro, Otay Ranch hosts Eastlake, Westview hosts Ramona and Vista is at Carlsbad. Strength of schedule favors Vista and Otay Ranch. The power rating favors Chula Vista and Otay Ranch.

Division II

(12 of 16 make it)

IN (11)

1) St. Augustine, 7-2

2) Madison, 8-1

3) Mount Miguel, 8-2

4) Imperial, 9-0

5) El Capitan, 8-1

6) Rancho Buena Vista, 6-3

7) West Hills, 7-2

8) Scripps Ranch, 6-3

9) Serra, 7-2

10) Mission Bay, 8-1

11) Brawley, 7-2

ON THE BUBBLE (2 for 1 spot)

Del Norte, 4-5

Mar Vista, 4-5

OUT (3)

Valley Center, 2-7

Escondido, 2-7

Rancho Bernardo, 1-8

Comments: St. Augustine has a great win, beating Cathedral Catholic. Madison has the best power rating. Rancho Buena Vista beat then-No. 1 San Pasqual, so it could move up. Imperial has dynamic RB Royce Freeman, but the team’s strength of schedule is horrible. The same goes for Mission Bay, whose record is good, but strength of schedule is brutal. Of the bubble teams, Del Norte is at Mt. Carmel and Mar Vista hosts Hilltop. Neither team has a signature win. Strength of schedule and power rating favor Del Norte.

Division III

(12 of 17 make it)

IN (7)

1) Francis Parker, 9-0

2) Hilltop, 8-1

3) Christian, 8-1

4) Hoover, 7-2

5) San Marcos, 6-3

6) Santa Fe Christian, 6-3

7) Bishop’s, 6-3

ON THE BUBBLE (6 for 5 spots)

Horizon Christian, 4-5

Granite Hills, 4-5

Bonita Vista, 4-5

Calexico, 4-5

Morse, 3-6

Fallbrook, 3-6

OUT (4)

Coronado, 2-7

Patrick Henry, 1-8

Santana, 1-8

San Diego, 0-8

Comments: Francis Parker has the best win among the top-seven seeds, beating Olympian. San Marcos could claim a top-four seed with a win over Mission Hills on Friday. Morse needs to beat Patrick Henry and Fallbrook must upset Rancho Buena Vista to burst one of the four-win bubble teams.

Division IV

(12 of 17 make it)

IN (6)

1) Sweetwater, 5-4

2) Monte Vista, 4-5

3) La Jolla Country Day, 5-4

4) Montgomery, 4-5

5) Castle Park, 4-5

6) Central, 5-4

ON THE BUBBLE (9 for 6 spots)

Tri-City Christian, 6-3

Clairemont, 4-5

La Jolla, 3-6

San Ysidro, 3-6

Mater Dei Catholic, 3-6

University City, 2-6

Orange Glen, 2-7

El Centro Southwest, 2-7

El Cajon Valley, 2-7

OUT (2)

Kearny, 1-8

San Diego Southwest, 0-9

Comments: What a mess! Sweetwater gets the No. 1 seed because of wins over Hilltop, La Jolla Country Day and Mater Dei Catholic. But Monte Vista has a win over Sweetwater, so the top two seeds could flip. After that, the committee will be throwing darts at the seeding board. It’s amazing that four two-win teams are alive and it’s amazing that 11 of the 17 teams in the division have a minus power rating and seven teams have a minus strength of schedule.

Division V

(8 of 17 make it)

IN (4)

1) Crawford, 9-0

2) San Diego Calvary Christian, 7-2

3) Classical, 7-2

4) Holtville, 7-2

ON THE BUBBLE (7 for 4 spots)

Escondido Charter, 4-5

Vincent Memorial, 5-4

Julian, 5-4

Mountain Empire, 5-4

San Diego Jewish, 3-2

Army-Navy, 5-4

Calvin Christian, 4-4

OUT (6)

Borrego Springs, 2-6

Maranatha Christian, 2-7

Foothills Christian, 2-6

Calipatria, 2-7

Lutheran, 1-8

The Rock, 0-9

Comments: This is another gigantic mess. Crawford is the only real for sure. Other than Crawford, every team has a minus power rating and strength of schedule. So many of the seeds will come down to head-to-head meetings. But so many of the teams have beaten each other.

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